On a bit of whim that popped in my head while running I decided to create a poll to gauge the backyard community’s thoughts on how they expect and how they would hope to see the 2023 Individual World Championship play out this year at Big’s Backyard. I shared the link to the poll in multiple Facebook groups, on several 𝕏 posts, and on the r/backyardultra subreddit. The poll asked six questions:
- Will a new course record be set this year at Big's Backyard?
- Will a new world record be set this year at Big's Backyard?
- How many yards will Big's Backyard go this year?
- Who do you want to see win?
- Who do you think will provide the assist?
- Who do you think will be the last one standing?
This poll was strictly for fun, and it has been quite fun to check in as the responses are received. As promised, here is a summary of the results. The full data set of results are available on this Google Sheet.
*In the interest of full disclosure, I submitted a response which is included in the results. *
Will a new course record be set this year at Big's?
The overwhelming majority of respondents believe that a new course record will be set this year at Big’s. In fact, 90.5% of all responses were “Yes.” I didn’t look at the survey results on a regular schedule, but every time I did check the “Yes” responses hovered right around 90%.
Will a new world record be set this year at Big's?
Again, the majority of respondents are predicting a new world record will be set at Big’s. It is certainly a bit more balanced than the prediction for the course record with 56.2% responding “Yes” and 43.8% giving a “No” response. The results from this question fluctuated a bit more than the course record question. The first few times I checked results, it was pretty evenly split with close to 50/50 responses. It wasn’t until the last few days of the poll that the responses started leaning more heavily towards a “Yes” majority.
How many yards will Big's go this year?
This question received the most evenly distribute responses of all the questions that had more than two options. Nearly all respondents (96.3%) agree that Big’s will go over 80 yards. The most common response was 81-95 yards which was selected by 20.4% of respondents. The second most common response was 106-110 with 19.7%. I’m not ruling out that Big’s will go over 120 yards, but I was surprised by how many people believe it will. The “greater than 120” response was the third most common tied with 96-100, each selected by 14.6% of respondents.
Who do you want to see win?
Phil Gore, Jennifer Russo, and Harvey Lewis were the three stand out runners for this question receiving 16.1, 11.7, and 10.9% of the total responses. I assume that most runners who responded to this poll selected themselves for this question, I unabashedly admit I did and can understand why. What I don’t understand is why anyone would select “No winner” for this question, but there it is with 1.5% of the responses received.
Who do you think will provide the assist?
Selected by over 60% of respondents, four runners were picked as the strong favorites to provide the assist this year at Big’s: Phil Gore (16.8%), Harvey Lewis (15.3%), Merijn Geerts (14.6%), and Sam Harvey (13.9%).
Who do you think will be the last one standing?
I think it comes as no surprise to anyone that the most picked runner to be the last one standing is the current backyard ultra world record holder, Phil Gore, selected by 29.2% of all respondents. Also not surprisingly, former co-backyard ultra world record holder, Merijn Geerts was picked second most frequently. Geerts was selected by 16.1% of all respondents. A close third, selected by 13.1% of all respondents, was Sam Harvey who provided the assist to Phil Gore this year at Dead Cow Gully Backyard where the current world record was set. Former world record holder, current US record holder, and Big’s Backyard course record holder, Harvey Lewis, was selected by 9.5% of all respondents making him the fourth most selected runner to be the last one standing. A result that I found surprising was that Ivo Steyaert, former co-backyard ultra world record holder with Geerts, was only selected by 3.6% of respondents, barely ranking in the top 5 most frequently selected runners.
Scott Snell
8 October, 2023
